Summary and projection

Содержание и основные понятия

01
The summary responds to the condition
СУММЕСЛИ
Concludes values suitable for the criterion;
СЧЁТЕСЛИ
Considers the relevant entries. Name the criterion, range of the criterion and range of result before calculation.
Question
Tool
Verification
How many orders have been completed?
SHOULD BE
Check a few lines manually.
What is the amount of expenditure in the category?
ASSESSMENT
Check the criterion and range limits.
How did the rate change?
Table + Line
The dates are natural.
02
Projection — contingent assumption
Formulation
"If conditions do not change and the trend continues, the model estimates the value of about..." Not "the chart has proved the reason."
For uneven dates, sudden changes and a small number of observations, the projection is particularly unreliable. Always show the starting points and the period on which the estimate is based.
03
Correlation does not prove cause
Ratio
Correlation close to
1
means a strong joint focus close to
-1
- opposite, near.
0
- There's no linear connection, and there's a non-linear connection.
Check with diagram
Before building a point diagram, check the emissions, units and sample size. The overall reason can change both topics.
Can't write
"The correlation proves that X causes Y." Correctly, "in the observed set of signs are linked; the causal conclusion requires separate research."